Tuesday, June 29, 2010

The Fascinating Pace Of Technological Change

The above video regarding the pace of technological change is fascinating. There is a tremendous amount of scholarly information available regarding the pace of technological change. An example is "The Law of Accelerating Returns" which was written about extensively in 2001 by Dr. Ray Kurzweil.

The Law of Accelerating Returns - by Dr. Ray Kurzweil

"The analysis of the rate of change of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common sense "intuitive linear' view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century, we will experience more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns", such as chip speed and cost effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There is even exponential growth in exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence leading to The Singularity--technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software based humans, and ultra high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light."

Those interested in more information should google "exponential versus intuitive linear view of technological change". It is alot more information than I am interested in and care to deal with, but fascinating on the surface.

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